#100: Predicting Who Each WNBA Team Will Protect from the Expansion Draft

We finally got some answers about how the expansion draft will work. While the league and the WNBPA were locked into CBA discussions during the offseason, the league still didn't take the time to iron out how the expansion draft process would exactly work.

"We have no idea," a front-office source told me in early March.

Well, now we all do, as the league put out a release on Wednesday breaking down the process.

Here is the long and short of it:

• a coin flip will take place on March 27 to decide who will get the first pick in the expansion draft. The winner of the coin flip will have the choice of getting the first pick of the expansion draft or the No. 6 pick of the rookie draft instead of the No. 7 pick.
• The two teams – Portland and Toronto – will alternate picks (six per round) for two rounds in a snake-draft fashion. Whoever picks second in Round 1 will pick first in Round 2.
• The other 13 teams will be able to protect up to five players from the expansion draft. These names are due to the league by Sunday, March 29.
• The expansion draft will take place at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN on Friday, April 3.
• The expansion teams may select one upcoming unrestricted free agent, gaining the ability to have the exclusive ability to negotiate a supermax deal with them.
• Only one player can be selected from each of the 13 WNBA teams per round

Follow all of that?

Of course, the issue is that about 80 percent of the league are slated to be free agents (not all unrestricted, but the vast majority will be).

That means that Portland and Toronto will have to choose from the following:

• one unrestricted free agent
• players on rookie-level deals who aren't protected
• players whose rights are assigned but are stashed overseas
• Lexie Brown or Kalani Brown (the only two veteran players not on rookie-level deals who aren't free agents)

That's ... not ideal if you are a Portland or Toronto fan, but that's how it's set up.

So, now that we have an idea of how it'll work, who will the Fire and Tempo select? Well, in order to answer that, we have to know who teams will protect.

But before that, I have to put a disclaimer here. I was texting with about 11 other people who cover the league last night as we were trying to work out the nuances still around the core designation.

Under the old CBA, players who exhausted the core designation weren't able to be protected. But, as we understand it, those players are able to be protected this year, with the understanding that if they are protected, they are still free to negotiate with all teams but are capped at the max. But if Portland or Toronto should select them, they have the exclusive ability to negotiate with the player for the supermax.

That's why I'm here today. I'm going to predict the five protections for all 13 teams.

Do I know some of these for a fact? Yes, I do.

Will I reveal those? No, I won't (ethics)!

But what I will do is sort players for each team into three categories:

• the locks
• the maybes
• the available players

OK, sound good?

Let's get into it.

Atlanta Dream

The locks: Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray, Naz Hillmon, Te-Hina Paopao

The maybes: Maya Caldwell, Jordin Canada, Brionna Jones, Nyadiew Puoch

The available players: Isobel Borlase, Maite Cazorla, Nia Coffey, Lorela Cubaj, Brittney Griner Sika Koné, Taylor Thierry, Shatori Walker-Kimbrough, Holly Winterburn, Matilde Villa

The reasoning: This was pretty easy, all things considered. Howard, Gray, Hillmon, and Paopao are all locks. If you wanted to argue that Paopao belongs in the "maybes," I'm OK with that. But with her being on a rookie contract and earning the trust of Karl Smesko last year, she's a lock for me. That leaves the final spot coming down to Jones, Caldwell, and Puoch. Puoch has the pedigree of being a first-round pick in the 2024 class, but we are going to look at two Smesko favorites here. Bri and Maya may be his two favorite players on his team (he'll never say that, of course). We'll go with Caldwell for salary cap reasons and because she's been a Smesko person since his first day on the job.

Chicago Sky

The locks: Angel Reese, Kamilla Cardoso, Ajša Sivka, Hailey Van Lith, Ariel Atkins

The maybes: N/A

The available players: Rebecca Allen, Rachel Banham, Aicha Coulibaly, Kia Nurse, Michaela Onyenwere, Sevgi Uzun, Maddy Westbeld, Elizabeth Williams

The reasoning: Am I missing something here? This seems pretty cut and dry. Angel, Kamilla, and Atkins are absolute locks with zero hesitation. With the draft capital that the Sky put into Sivka and Hailey Van Lith, both are pretty easy calls over Maddy Westbeld.

Connecticut Sun

The locks: Aaliyah Edwards, Aneesah Morrow, Saniya Rivers, Marina Mabrey

The maybes: Leïla Lacan, Olivia Nelson-Ododa

The available players: Lindsay Allen, Tina Charles, Bria Hartley, Rayah Marshall, Nikolina Milić, Haley Peters, Mamignan Touré

The reasoning: Four of the five are rather easy calls here. Three players on rookie contracts are obvious, and the Sun have made it clear that they plan on having Marina be a part of their rebuild as a focal player. That leaves Lacan and ONO. It's probably clearly Lacan, but the Sun front office really likes ONO.

Dallas Wings

The locks: Paige Bueckers, Maddy Siegrist, Arike Obunbowale

The maybes: Luisa Geiselsöder, Tyasha Harris, Aziaha James, Haley Jones, Awak Kuier, Li Yueru

The available players: Grace Berger, Myisha Hines-Allen, Diamond Miller, Lou Lopez-Sénéchal, JJ Quinerly

The reasoning: Could the Wings get creative and not protect Arike? Yeah, they could. But I'd be pretty surprised. We are here with six players for two spots. This is where it gets fun! The Wings will want to keep James on her rookie deal – especially with the added attention and development she had at Unrivaled Season 2. We'll go with Kuier slightly over Haley Jones for her play in Turkey and the Euroleague over the last couple of years. Yes, I'm dreaming of a Kuier and Awa Fam lineup in my head.

Golden State Valkyries

The locks: Veronica Burton, Justė Jocytė, Kayla Thornton

The maybes: Monique Billings, Kaitlyn Chen, Tiffany Hayes, Carla Leite, Iliana Rupert, Janelle Salaün, Cecilia Zandalasini

The available players: María Conde, Temi Fágbénlé, Kate Martin

The reasoning: The Valkyries will lock up their All-Star last year and their All-Star this year (that's VB, folx), as well as their first-round pick of last year's draft. Then, they have some choices to make. Do they want the veteran presence of Mo Billings? The dependable Chen? The vet TIP? I really want them to keep Carla Leite. She's one of my favorite players in the league, and the ceiling is SO high for her. But I think that Golden State will ultimately land on Rupert and Salaün for the French connection. What a tough call.

Indiana Fever

The locks: Aliyah Boston, Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Mitchell

The maybes: Lexie Hull, Aari McDonald, KK Timpson

The available players: Chloe Bibby, Sydney Colson, Sophie Cunningham, Damiris Dantas, Natasha Howard, Brianna Turner, Kristy Wallace

The reasoning: The Fever are in a great spot here. They get to lock up Aliyah Boston, Caitlin Clark, and Kelsey Mitchell, allowing them to work on locking the latter up to a deserved supermax deal. The last two spots should go to KK Timpson on her rookie deal as she continues to develop, and then Hull. I don't think Hull is a slam dunk over Aari McDonald, but the hope is that the Fever will be able to sign Hull and that the expansion teams will be concerned over McDonald's health.

Las Vegas Aces

The locks: Chelsea Gray, Aaliyah Nye, A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young

The maybes: Dana Evans, Jewell Loyd, NaLyssa Smith

The available players: Kierstan Bell, Megan Gustafson, Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, Kiah Stokes

The reasoning: The four locks are as locked in as you can possibly get. Remember, just because they are protecting Jackie Young from the expansion draft doesn't mean that she will stay in Vegas next year (sorry, fans). Will the Aces go with Evans, Loyd, or Smith? It's not an easy decision, but being that the Aces gave up a 2027 first-round pick for Smith at the deadline and she's a restricted free agent, she seems like she'll get the nod (though they need to do everything they can to bring back Evans next year).

Los Angeles Sparks

The locks: Cameron Brink, Dearica Hamby, Rickea Jackson, Kelsey Plum

The maybes: Julie Allemand, Rae Burrell, Azurá Stevens

The available players: Sarah Ashlee Barker, Emma Cannon, Sania Feagin, Alissa Pili, Julie Vanloo

The reasoning: Again, the locks are easy. It really comes down to that fifth spot. With the hopes of retaining Kelsey Plum and Dearica Hamby already, things are going to get expensive fast for the Sparks. She'd be one of the players that the Fire or Tempo would draft as their unrestricted free agent. I'm a big Rae Burrell guy, and while she loves the bright lights of LA, she needs a fresh start. She won't be more than the No. 4 or No. 5 option most nights. She can be so much more. That leaves us with Allemand, who not only gives valuable minutes off the bench, but does so on a rookie deal.

Minnesota Lynx

The locks: Napheesa Collier, Kayla McBride, Alanna Smith, Courtney Williams

The maybes: Bridget Carleton, DiJonai Carrington, Natisha Hiedeman, Dorka Juhász, Anastasiia Kosu

The available players: Aubrey Griffin, Maïa Hirsch, Maria Kliundikova, Jessica Shepard, Jaylyn Sherrod, Camryn Taylor

The reasoning: I don't want to be the GM of the Lynx right now (kidding, I'll take it). After the top four, they have some tough decisions to make. Do they break up the Stud Budz? Will they be willing to spend up on what Carleton is going to command on the open market? How will they decide between Dorka and Kosu? That's the biggest question for me. The fifth player will likely come down to the two of them. With Kosu having an extra year of team control on her rookie deal, she gets the nod here.

New York Liberty

The locks: Leonie Fiebich, Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones, Breanna Stewart

The maybes: Natasha Cloud, Kennedy Burke, Emma Meeseman, Nyara Sabally

The available players: Raquel Carrera, Ivana Dojkić, Marine Fauthoux, Rebekah Gardner, Isabelle Harrison, Han Xu, Marine Johannès, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, Adja Kane, Seehia Ridard, Annika Soltau, Stephanie Talbot

The reasoning: With players like Stewie and JJ being eligible for this despite being cored before, it changes things up for the Liberty quite a bit. It allows the Liberty to protect their big three, as well as Leonie, leaving them with a call of protecting one of Tash, KB, Emma, or Nyara. The Liberty are keeping their window open now, so the impact that Tash had on their defense last year to make up for Sabrina's lack of defense on the perimeter is too important for them to pass up. Nyara is tempting, but she's on the last year of her rookie deal.

Phoenix Mercury

The locks: Kahleah Copper, Satou Sabally, Alyssa Thomas

The maybes: Monique Akoa Makani, Lexi Held, Kathryn Westeld

The available players: Julia Ayrault, DeWanna Bonner, Kalani Brown, Kitija Laksa, Klara Lundquist, Helena Pueyo, Sami Whitcomb, Kiana Williams

The reasoning: I'll hear the argument for Lexi Held over Kathryn Westbeld, but Westbeld played such a big role for the Mercury last year – not to mention her story is fantastic. She gets the nod. We don't have to include DeWanna here. I think teams know that she's going to play with AT or not play at all.

Seattle Storm

The locks: Skylar Diggins, Ezi Magbegor, Dominique Malonga, Nneka Ogwumike

The maybes: Jordan Horston, Brittney Sykes, Gabby Williams

The available players: Lexie Brown, Zia Cookie, Mackenzie Holmes, Tiffany Mitchell, Nika Mühl, Katie Lou Samuelson, Erica Wheeler

The reasoning: Seattle is as difficult as Minnesota is. Not easy at all, and they are the most-likely team to have a key player poached. Ezi and Dom are the two absolute locks as the future of this team. The backlash if they don't protect Nneka and Skylar will be massive, so they get the nod. Now what? They gave up a first-round pick for Slim last year. Gabby Williams is only 28 and chose to come to Seattle, but she's eligible for free agency. Would they keep Nika or Jordan over Gabby? Before Nika's recent re-injury, I'd consider it more. It gets tough with Jordan and Gabby. A coin flip, really. I lean Gabby ever so slightly.

Washington Mystics

The locks: Georgia Amoore, Shakira Austin, Sonia Citron, Kiki Iriafen

The maybes: Stefanie Dolson, Emily Engstler, Lucy Olson, Madison Scott, Jacy Sheldon, Sug Sutton

The available players: Txell Alarcon, Nastja Claessens, Alysha Clark, Bernadett Határ, Jade Melbourne

The reasoning: The Mystics are in a great spot, man. Their three first-round picks will be protected, along with Shakira Austin, who remains the priority for the Mystics' brass when free agency opens up. The Mystics also have three first-round picks this year, so they are going to develop from the developmental roster spots. So, who do they go with for their last player? I can see Engstler or Sutton as those veteran players, but I think that the Mystics will go with either Lucy Olson or Jacy Sheldon on a rookie deal. We'll give them a slight nod for Jacy after the Aaliyah Edwards trade.

Until Next Time

Happy 100! Thanks for allowing me to have some fun here in this space. We'll be back on Monday (maybe sooner if I get the urge).

I love you awesome nerds.