#124: Mailbag!

It's been a busy couple of weeks over here. I went to D.C. last week for a tech summit for domestic violence survivors, and by the time you're reading this, I'll be boarding a flight with my partner for a weekend away in the beautiful city of Milwaukee.

I wanted to try to get a newsletter out today, though, so I posted an ask on social media for some questions.

I got a few, so that's what we'll be looking at today.

This is a timely one. Not only are we in the final quarter of the season, but the wonderfully talented – and smart! – Jacob Mox of The IX Sports and Her Hoop Stats put together a playoff-clinching scenario for all teams in our Slack.

Per Jacob, this shows the seed probabilities based on 10 million sims where each game is a coin flip and point differential tiebreakers are based on current point differential trends.

What's important for the question asked is to look at the "out" section for Los Angeles and Portland. The Sparks are 99.05365% out of the playoffs and the Fire are 98.61532% out.

Here's what would happen for the Sparks to be eliminated:

For the Fire, there are about, well, 16 different things that would need to happen, per Jacob.

New York has basically guaranteed a playoff spot, with No. 8 being the most-likely landing spot for them.

The Liberty could clinch a playoff spot as early as Tuesday if Portland loses its next two games.

Ah a question about the team that I cover for The IX Sports.

Bri returned a couple of games before the All-Star Game after undergoing meniscus surgery for an injury that she suffered overseas during the offseason.

The plan, as I reported for The IX, was that she was going to be worked back off of the bench for about 12-15 minutes in her first game and upping her usage from there.

I'm writing this before the Dream's game on Thursday against the Sun, but that plan for increasing her usage has taken shape the way that the team intended it to.

The plan has been to always get her back to a place where she's able to play 25-plus minutes regularly and enter the starting lineup again, allowing Angel Reese to move to her more traditional power forward spot and Naz Hillmon to be the first big off of the bench.

I had a conversation with someone higher up with the team's coaching staff that said it was still the plan to have her enter the starting lineup ahead of the playoffs. They emphasized that closing games is more important than starting games, but they want to give Bri and Angel plenty of time on the floor together before the playoffs start.

As of this writing, the duo have shared the court for 98 minutes together.

I'd expect to see the change after the FIBA World Cup.

For the second part of the question, I think it's Atlanta still. They are the only team that has their starters play more than 30 minutes per game, and it'll give them a chance to have Allisha Gray, Jordin Canada, Hillmon, and Jones get actual rest. Rhyne Howard and Angel are playing for Team USA, so they won't get the down time that they'll need.

It could also be beneficial for the Mystics, too. They are young, of course, but a lot of the team hasn't had a break in about a year because of the collegiate season. You hate to slow down the momentum that they have, but they could use the rest.

Lastly, we can look at the Wings. They've struggled since the break, and they are dealing with injuries to Azzi Fudd, Jessica Shepard, and now Aziaha James. It's another team that can use the break to get healthy.

Question: How would you rank the current coaches in the WNBA?

I left my DMs open for those who wanted to ask a question privately. So, let's dig into this one.

I'll rank the coaches from 15 to 1.

15.Rachid Meziane - he's gone after this year. New regime in Houston. His style never really fit in what was a mismanaged rebuild.

14.Lynne Roberts - good collegiate coach. Players were big fans of hers last year. Pressure market with the all-in approach not working.

13.Tyler Marsh - some of what's happening in Chicago is on him, but he gets too much of the blame. It's the front office that is the biggest issue.

12.Chris DeMarco - I just don't get it. I don't like his system. I don't like his rotations. I don't like his challenges.

11.Nate Tibbetts - he gets more of a pass since his team went to the WNBA Finals last year – even if it was overachieving.

10.Alex Sarama - a really smart coach. He doesn't have great players but gets the most out of them all. Unconventional, but I like that.

9.Sonia Raman - I was happy to see her get a shot, and I was a fan of her in New York. Seattle is young but they are so damn talented. She's the right leader for them.

8.Sydney Johnson - his players love him. I didn't think that he would be able to develop talent, but it's something that they take seriously. I was wrong.

7.Jose Fernandez - I wasn't sure if he would be able to translate to the league. He's been able to. If you were ever curious to what Geno Auriemma would look like in the WNBA, this is the closest we'll get.

6.Karl Smesko - this is a fair spot, right? Definitely some issues with the rotations and the trust that he has in them, but they are looking at back-to-back 25-plus win seasons.

5.Stephanie White - a great basketball mind that gets overshadowed by the fuckery in Indiana.

4.Sandy Brondello - a rough season for the Tempo, but mainly due to injuries. I'm excited to watch a full season of this team next year – hopefully with an acquisition of a post player.

3.Natalie Nakase - you could put her No. 2 and I'd have no issues with it. Holds her players accountable. Makes the goal known. Everyone buys into it. I'd run through a wall for her.

2.Becky Hammon - a fantastic coach who can get dinged because she has a super team. Maybe, just maybe, she helped develop those players into who and what they are today.

1. Cheryl Reeve - the Lynx are the best team in basketball and were expected to be a fringe playoff team this year. There's no one better.