WNBA Season Preview: We are so back, baby

Power rankings, awards, breakout players, and WNBA Finals prediction

I say finally, but it really feels like "already?"

I was chatting with Ben Pickman of The Athletic at the Atlanta Dream's preseason game against the Indiana Fever. We were talking about the season being right around the corner, but also how there's literally no offseason–not to be confused with the name of The Athletic's women's basketball podcast–for women's hoops.

WNBA season runs from May to October. Which leads right into NCAA basketball beginning in November. Then Unrivaled at the beginning of the year. And Athletes Unlimited right after that.

It's a lot, but it's fantastic.

The WNBA is the main event for me, of course, although if you prefer the college game, no shade at all to you.

Since the action tips off tonight, let's get right into it with our WNBA season preview.

Power Rankings

13. Washington Mystics

I have the Mystics bringing up the rear. They gutted their roster this offseason to grab as many draft picks as possible. They have a solid future ahead of them, but this season is about finding the fit between Kiki Iriafen and Aaliyah Edwards on offense and having Shakira Austin stay healthy.

12. Connecticut Sun

All of the names you recognize are gone. Completely gutted. And the team is ... definitely a WNBA team. I put them ahead of the Mystics just because of Tina Charles and Marina Mabrey. Saniya Rivers and Aneesah Morrow are both insanely athletic, but both of them will have to develop a consistent outside shot if this pairing will work long term.

11. Golden State Valkyries

Should they be last? Maybe. The Valkyries took a different approach to building a roster, and they really don't have any need to be good right away as they jockey for lottery positioning and keep their books open for two max-level players this offseason. But this team is going to play hard and surprise people in their first year.

10. Los Angeles Sparks

A rough season last year for the Sparks, going 8-32. Kelsey Plum is a huge addition to pair with Rickea Jackson in her second year, but they are still a year away from being a playoff contender. The goal is to get Cameron Brink back in June. Keeping her healthy and working on her defensive discipline is a key for them.

9. Dallas Wings

I have the Wings missing the playoffs. Others have them there, and I get it. But a lot of the playoff projection comes from Paige Bueckers and the warranted hype surrounding her. It's a brand new team in Dallas, with a ton of great players. I won't argue with you if you have them eighth. I just think it may take a little more time to gel than we think.

8. Chicago Sky

It's Year 2 for Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso. Their development will continue to be crucial as the Sky look to turn into contenders. Reese was the biggest winner in Unrivaled, as she took her game to another level playing with Chelsea Gray. Expect the same to happen with Courtney Vandersloot in Chicago.

7. Phoenix Mercury

The lack of depth for the Mercury concerns me, and they are an injury to Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas, or Satou Sabally away from moving down the rankings. But it's a fantastic big three that allows the Mercury to attack the opposition at all three levels.

6. Atlanta Dream

A new system. New players. New coach. New expectations. It's a new era for the Atlanta Dream. Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones are going to be shooting threes regularly for the Dream for the first time in their careers under new coach Karl Smesko. Smesko says that they haven't even really installed their offensive plays yet, so the only thing stopping the Dream will be whether it can learn the system in time and if Jordin Canada can stay healthy.

5. Las Vegas Aces

It feels blasphemous having the Aces this low, especially when they have the best player in basketball on their team, as well as Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young, and Jewell Loyd. But after that, I have concerns. They lost a ton of key players this offseason, and that depth behind Wilson is scary.

4. Seattle Storm

Skylar Diggins said that this is the most talented team she's ever been on. It's player speak, of course, because that's what they are supposed to say. But she's also not wrong. The Storm have already had major losses to three key players, losing Nika Mühl, Jordan Horston, and Katie Lou Samuelson for the season with torn ACLs. They have the depth to overcome them, but one more injury could derail them.

3. Indiana Fever

The Fever did a great job building around Caitlin Clark this offseason by retaining Kelsey Mitchell, trading for Sophie Cunningham, and signing Natasha Howard and DeWanna Bonner. I have concerns around the fit of Howard with this team, but it's a team that has solid depth and is able to find shots at all three levels at a quick pace.

2. New York Liberty

The Liberty won the title, and now they have the target on their back as the team to beat. I expect them to be fantastic yet again, but I have concerns with them losing Betnijah Laney-Hamilton and Kayla Thornton–the former due to a knee injury and the latter in the expansion draft to Golden State. They were key wing defenders, and the loss of both is enough for me to put them at No. 2.

1. Minnesota Lynx

The Lynx are pissed. They feel like they were robbed in Game 5 of the WNBA Finals, so expect them to play with a chip on their shoulder all season. Napheesa Collier and Kayla McBride make up a fantastic one-two punch, and their offense may rival their elite defense this year. Getting a healthy Jessica Shepard back is huge for this team.

5 Players to Breakout

1. Elizabeth Kitley (Las Vegas): Kitley missed all of last season with a torn ACL. She was going to be a first-round pick last year but suffered the injury in Virginia Tech's final game of the regular season. She fell into the lap of the Aces, and this will be her de facto rookie season. She's going to be a key player for the Aces as they lack depth behind A'ja Wilson.
2. Jacy Sheldon (Connecticut): Someone is going to have to score for the Sun. Tina Charles will get hers, as well Marina Mabrey. After that, it's a toss-up. Jacy Sheldon was a first-round pick last year, and while she's known for her perimeter defense, she is a more than capable No. 3 scoring option for a bad team.
3. Julie Vanloo (Golden State): Vanloo had a fantastic rookie season last year, and I had her on my WNBA All-Rookie First Team. While she's in here second year, she is 32 years old. She has a ton of international experience to bring to a young team. Her passing is crisp, and she should play a ton of minutes either as a starter or as the first guard off of the bench.
4. Rae Burrell (Los Angeles): Burrell was a breakout player in Unrivaled, as the 3-on-3 game really allowed her to showcase her offense in the open court and to highlight her defensive ability with key blocks for the Vinyl. It's Year 4 for Burrell in the WNBA, and this is her best shot yet to take that step forward with her game that we can all see.
5. Lexie Hull (Indiana): You could argue that Hull had her breakout last year, but her role was still so inconsistent in the first half of the year, that we haven't seen the breakout for a full season yet. Hull should be a favorite to win the Sixth Player of the Year Award this year, as she'll be playing starter minutes as a reserve. If the offensive growth that we saw from Hull in the second half sticks this season, look out.

And the Award Goes to

MVP: Napheesa Collier (Minnesota): This is tough, because, again, it's voting against A'ja Wilson. And you can't say anything that's perceived to be a negative against any South Carolina or UConn player. It's not allowed. Even though Wilson is the best player in basketball, Collier has the best chance to win the MVP from her this year. Is some of it predicting voter fatigue? Yes, but Collier is playing at a different level right now both offensively and defensively.

Runner up: A'ja Wilson
Third place: Caitlin Clark

Defensive Player of the Year: A'ja Wilson (Las Vegas): We'll swap Wilson in for Collier here, as both will have a case for both awards at the end of the season. Wilson is elite in every facet of her game, but her defense is often overlooked just because of how damn good she is offensively.

Runner up: Napheesa Collier
Third place: DiJonai Carrington

Most Improved Player: Shakira Austin (Washington): Austin has been my pick for this award for the past two seasons. She just needs to stay healthy. She's an elite-level big who can really be a key future player for the Mystics if she can stay healthy, allowing Aaliyah Edwards and Kiki Iriafen to grow outside of the paint.

Runner up: Rae Burrell
Third place: Jacy Sheldon

Rookie of the Year: Paige Bueckers (Dallas): There's a lot that would have to go wrong for Bueckers not to win this award. She's an elite-level talent who is absolutely pro ready. The only concerns that I have are injuries given her history and working with Arike Ogunbowale. Both are tiny, tiny, tiny concerns.

Runner up: Sonia Citron
Third place: Aneesah Morrow

Sixth Player of the Year: Maddy Siegrist (Dallas): Siegrist was on her way to a breakout season last year before she got injured. She should be a starter for a WNBA team, but she just so happens to be playing behind Paige Bueckers, Arike Ogunbowale, and DiJonai Carrington. Yeah, that's not her fault. She's going to thrive with the Dallas second unit.

Runner up: Lexie Hull
Third place: Shatori Walker-Kimbrough

Coach of the Year: Stephanie White (Indiana): White moves from Connecticut to Indiana, and she inherits a generational player and a team that is built to win now. Yeah, she's going to run away with this award.

Runner up: Tyler Marsh
Third place: Noelle Quinn

First Team All-WNBA: A'ja Wilson, Napheesa Collier, Caitlin Clark, Breanna Stewart, Arike Ogunbowale

WNBA Finals Prediction: Minnesota Lynx over Indiana Fever

Read My Work at Winsidr

I'm doing a ton of work at Winsidr this year, covering the Atlanta Dream, helping with the Patreon, doing power rankings, toying with a newsletter, and editing different articles.

Few outlets provide the coverage to the WNBA that Winsidr does. No one provides the passion that we do.

Here are a couple of pieces that I wrote this past week:

Winsidr power rankings (collectively voted on)

A look inside the Atlanta Dream's Training Camp, and why the three-pointer will alleviate any spacing concerns

Pete Rose to the Hall of Fame?

Go fuck yourself, Pete Rose.

Until Next Time

The newsletter will resume on Monday, with a mixed bag of topics. But it's WNBA season, kiddos, so we need to lock in like DiJonai Carrington on defense.

Keep your eyes on your inbox. I love you awesome nerds.